Governor Rick Snyder and Democratic candidate for governor Mark Schauer will each be nominated this weekend at their party conventions. Snyder will receive the Michigan Republican Party’s nomination at the Suburban Collection Showplace in Novi, and Schauer will be nominated at the Michigan Democratic Party convention in Lansing, at the Lansing Center. Both parties will nominate candidates for other statewide offices as well, including Attorney General, Secretary of State, Supreme Court and State Board of Education candidates including University of Michigan Board of Regents, Wayne State University Board of Governors and Michigan State University Board of Trustees.
The official nominations of the two gubernatorial contenders will clear the way for what promises to be a tough election battle as Snyder faces an increasingly strong challenge from Schauer who recent polling shows is in a neck-and-neck race with the governor.
Snyder is heading to the nomination with a problem on his ticket as Tea Party activists are vowing to dethrone his lieutenant governor, Brian Calley. Tea Party activist Wes Nakigiri, who is pushing to be Snyder’s running mate, is not backing down, setting off a bitter nomination fight at the GOP convention this weekend. Some members of the Tea Party don’t think Calley is conservative enough. The tug of war in the GOP camp to formally nominate a running mate will be a flashback of the same fight four years ago where Calley narrowly won the nomination against Nakigiri who is vowing to win this time.
Calley seemed to be avoiding a fight on the nomination floor when he recently urged his supporters to not challenge the voting rights of Tea Party delegates at the upcoming convention.
On the other hand, Democrats have rallied around Schauer and his running mate and Oakland County Clerk, Lisa Brown, avoiding any scenario that would produce the kind of contest that took place between Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and former Democratic leader Andy Dillon four years ago. With no nomination fight, unlike the GOP ticket, Schauer will ride into this weekend’s convention to receive the endorsement of delegates and supporters ahead of the November showdown.
Meanwhile, Snyder is opening a Detroit office this week to begin campaigning for votes in Detroit. At the Democratic African American Alliance breakfast this past Saturday in Detroit where Schauer was the featured speaker, several delegates said many Detroit seniors can’t wait to give GOP operatives an “earful” because of “how their pensions have been cut in this bankruptcy.”
Lavonia Perryman, organizer of the African American Alliance meeting, said Democrats are ready to get the vote out and that Detroit is a crucial base where Schauer must continue to make the case to get the vote out.
The latest polling data puts the race at 44.6 vs. 44.3, which means that if the election were held today, it would not be a cakewalk for the Snyder campaign. Added to this conundrum is the fact that the governor has not been able to break the magical number “50” which is causing concern among conservatives.
“I think that is overstating it a little bit. I think the governor has a decent lead even though I would not call it a commanding lead,” said Paul Welday, a Republican strategist. “It is not unusual for the race to be this close. Michigan is a purple state at best. Any Republican running statewide is always in a real election.”
Like other conservatives, Welday said, “Yes it is a concern for me about an incumbent who has not broken into 50 percent,” but he added that no GOP gubernatorial candidate has broken the 50 percent barrier in the last decade.
“I have every expectation he is going to make that transition from policy to politics and that is partly why the numbers are where they are,” Welday said. “I would expect Democrats to say that Snyder has cut education but that education argument simply does not stand up. There is more money in education there has been in the past. I would agree that some segment of the population is not enamored by some of the policies of the Snyder administration, like pensions.”
Schauer’s campaign front man Zack Pohl disagrees.
“The polls show that this race is a dead heat, and after this weekend’s MDP convention, Mark will have all the momentum as we head into the general election season. Democrats are energized, unified and motivated to elect Mark Schauer and defeat Rick Snyder on Nov. 4,” Pohl said. “It’s clear Snyder is in deep trouble. This governor has shown that he’s not on your side, and no matter how hard he tries, Snyder can’t hide the fact that he cut over $1 billion from education and raised taxes on seniors. Michigan needs a governor who will make Michigan’s economy work for everyone, not just the wealthy, and that’s exactly what Mark Schauer will do.”
E-mail bthompson@michronicle.com.
