Mary Sheffield has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the Detroit mayoral race, according to a new poll conducted on behalf of the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus. With just under six months before the August 5 primary, Sheffield holds a commanding lead with 34 percent of the vote. Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig trails in second place with 20 percent, while former City Council President Saunteel Jenkins follows with 12 percent. Rev. Solomon Kinloch Jr. comes in at 5 percent, attorney Todd Perkins at 4 percent, state Rep. Joe Tate at 2 percent, Councilman Fred Durhall III at 1 percent, and businessman Joel Haashim registering no support. Another 21 percent of voters remain undecided.
The poll, conducted by Douglas Fulmer & Associates between February 16 and 20, surveyed 400 Detroiters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Among those polled, Black voters made up 68 percent of the sample, while White voters accounted for 22 percent and others 19 percent.
Pollster Ed Sarpolus, executive director of Target Insyght in Lansing, explains the results are primarily a reflection of name recognition at this stage in the race. “Essentially, the other people are going to have to build their name identity. They going to have to get out there in the community, go door to door, create a media campaign, do mailings,” Sarpolus said.
With Joe Tate no longer in the race, candidates must focus on gaining traction before the primary. The two top vote-getters in August will advance to the general election in November. Sarpolus emphasizes that the primary goal for those polling lower is to close the gap between themselves and Sheffield. “Their goal should be to either beat, tie, or come in second to Sheffield, the current front runner.”
Notably, Craig and Tate had not officially announced their candidacies at the time of the poll. Tate has since withdrawn, leaving Craig as the only high-profile figure from law enforcement still in contention. Craig, who has name recognition from his tenure as police chief, will need to solidify his base and expand beyond his existing support to remain competitive.
Polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment at a given moment, but how much do they truly reflect the voices of everyday Detroiters? With a sample size of 400 people in a city of over 600,000, is this poll capturing the full spectrum of Detroit’s diverse electorate? The weight of name recognition often skews early polling, favoring those with the most media exposure rather than those with the most comprehensive policies. If candidates with lower name recognition are struggling in the numbers, does that mean their platforms lack resonance, or are they simply fighting an uphill battle against familiarity? Voters must critically engage with polling data rather than accept it at face value. These numbers can influence perception, but they do not dictate the final outcome. Only the ballots cast on Election Day will determine who advances.
Primaries are not just a procedural step; they are the defining moment that shapes who will ultimately lead Detroit. Too often, voter turnout lags in primary elections, leaving crucial decisions in the hands of a fraction of the electorate. If participation is low, are we truly seeing the will of the people, or just the will of those with the time, resources, and awareness to show up early in the process? Those who do not engage in the primaries are allowing others to make decisions on their behalf. The path to leadership in Detroit is not determined in November alone—it is decided in August when the field is narrowed. The question is, will enough Detroiters recognize the power of their primary vote before it’s too late?
Every election cycle, communities hear about the importance of voting, yet access, misinformation, and disengagement continue to create barriers. Detroit’s political landscape is shaped by the very people who show up. If a poll suggests one candidate is leading, does that create complacency, causing potential voters to assume the race is already decided? If another candidate is polling low, does that discourage their supporters from turning out? The only numbers that should carry real weight are the official votes cast. Detroiters must be diligent, informed, and engaged, ensuring their voices are represented—not just in the headlines, but at the ballot box.
The poll also surveyed voters on the upcoming Democratic primary for governor. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist leads Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson by 11 points, 35 percent to 24 percent, with 41 percent of voters undecided. The results indicate that both candidates will need to work to solidify their support, especially as voters remain uncertain.
Favorability ratings for key figures in Detroit politics provide additional context for the race. Mayor Mike Duggan, who is now running as an Independent for governor, received the highest favorability score among Detroit politicians, with 72 percent of voters viewing him favorably compared to 17 percent who had an unfavorable opinion. Another 11 percent had no opinion.
Sheffield, the current City Council President and leading mayoral candidate, holds a 48 percent favorability rating, with 21 percent viewing her unfavorably and 32 percent having no opinion. Jenkins is seen favorably by 28 percent of voters, but an equal 28 percent view her unfavorably, while 44 percent remain neutral. Craig, despite his second-place standing in the mayoral poll, faces a higher unfavorable rating of 35 percent, with only 26 percent of voters holding a favorable view and 40 percent undecided.
Rev. Solomon Kinloch Jr., a prominent pastor, has a favorability rating of 18 percent, with 21 percent unfavorable and 60 percent holding no opinion. Attorney Todd Perkins stands at 11 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable, and 73 percent having no opinion. Councilman Fred Durhall III’s numbers show 16 percent favorable, 18 percent unfavorable, and 66 percent with no opinion. State Rep. Joe Tate, before withdrawing from the race, polled at 18 percent favorable, 20 percent unfavorable, with 62 percent holding no opinion.
The data suggests that while Sheffield and Craig have established voter bases, many candidates still struggle with name recognition. Those polling in the single digits must significantly increase their outreach efforts to make any meaningful gains before the primary. Sarpolus stresses that this election remains fluid, especially with a sizable percentage of voters still undecided.
Sheffield’s strong position speaks to her years of work on the Detroit City Council and her deep ties to the community. She has been a vocal advocate for equitable development, affordable housing, and economic opportunities for Detroiters. Craig, meanwhile, has leaned on his law enforcement background as a point of strength, though his high unfavorable rating suggests that his tenure as police chief was polarizing.
Jenkins, despite her experience in city government, faces the challenge of reintroducing herself to voters after being out of office. Kinloch has the support of his congregation but must broaden his appeal beyond the church community. Perkins, Durhall, and Haashim must significantly increase their visibility if they hope to gain traction.
With six months until the primary, the race is far from settled. The 21 percent of undecided voters could shift the landscape as candidates begin to ramp up their campaigns. Outreach efforts, policy proposals, and voter engagement will determine whether Sheffield maintains her lead or if another candidate can close the gap.
Detroit’s electorate remains engaged, with issues such as economic development, public safety, and affordable housing expected to drive voter turnout. Candidates will need to connect with residents on these key concerns if they hope to gain their support. As Sarpolus notes, visibility and direct engagement will be critical in the months ahead. “They going to have to get out there in the community.”
This mayoral race will serve as a test of political staying power, grassroots organizing, and the ability to inspire confidence among Detroit voters. Sheffield may be leading now, but the fight for the top two spots heading into November is just getting started.